An asteroid that is nearing the size of a football field could impact Earth in 2032, prompting scientists to activate the planetary defense network. The asteroid has been classified as level 3 on the Torino Impact Scale, indicating a real possibility that it could collide with the planet.
How likely is the impact?
The asteroid has a 1.6% chance of hitting Earth and destroying an entire city.
While this number might seem low to those not familiar with the topic, it is a relatively high percentage compared to other asteroids.
According to the European Space Agency (ESA), scientists are not alarmed yet and continue to closely study the object.
The Asteroid 2024 YR4
This asteroid, named 2024 YR4, was first spotted on December 27, 2024, at the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. Based on its brightness, astronomers have estimated its size to be between 130 and 300 feet (40-90 meters) wide.
By New Year’s Eve, the asteroid was already on the desk of Kelly Fast, NASA’s interim planetary defense officer, who classified it as a “potential threat”.
Activation of the Planetary Defense Network
The risk of impact continued to rise, and on January 29, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a global collaboration dedicated to planetary defense, issued a memorandum. The asteroid was classified at level 3, activating the global network of centers dedicated to protecting Earth from potential impacts.
According to an ESA statement, “It is estimated that asteroid 2024 YR4 is larger than 50 meters and has an impact probability greater than 1% within the next 50 years.”
This meets the necessary criteria to activate the asteroid reaction groups, supported by the UN: the IAWN and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG).
☄️ We aren’t just waiting for an asteroid to strike. We are taking active measures to help Earth defend itself against a potential impact.
Our Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre monitors over 37 000 near-Earth asteroids. The vast majority are entirely safe, but occasionally… pic.twitter.com/1qvSEWs5nw
— European Space Agency (@esa) February 7, 2025
The Next Step: Meeting in Vienna
The SMPAG, chaired by the ESA, will meet next week in Vienna to assess the next steps. If the impact risk remains above 1%, recommendations will be sent to the UN, including the possibility of a mission with a kinetic impactor to divert the asteroid.
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