Datanalisis President: “The probability of the U.S. and Venezuela negotiating Maduro’s exit is zero”

In just two weeks since Donald Trump returned to the White House on January 20, the world has been shaken by his decisions, from the conflict in Ukraine to his threats to deport migrants and impose tariffs on countries like Canada, China, and Mexico. However, one of the most surprising topics has been his approach towards Venezuela.

Trump and His Stance on Nicolás Maduro

Trump has never recognized Nicolás Maduro as the president of Venezuela, but with his new mandate, the circumstances have changed. He now knows that Maduro is the real leader of Venezuela, and he will have to negotiate with him. This was mentioned by Luis Vicente León, president of Datanálisis, during a forum at UCV on the economic future of Venezuela in 2025.

The Surprising Trip of Grenell to Caracas

The news of Richard Grenell’s visit, a White House official, surprised many. It was expected that Trump would maintain his “maximum pressure” policy against Maduro, but Grenell traveled to Caracas to discuss issues related to the deportation of Venezuelans, members of the Tren de Aragua, and the release of at least 10 U.S. citizens detained in Venezuela.

The “Unusual Negotiation” According to Luis Vicente León

León clarified that, although Trump has never recognized Maduro, the reality is that both must negotiate. He described this situation as an “unusual negotiation,” as it is not a classic agreement, but an interaction in which Maduro accepted the deportation of migrants and the release of six detained Americans.

The Three Triggers of the Negotiation

León explained that after the July elections, there are three key factors influencing the relationship between Venezuela and the U.S.:

1. The recognition of Maduro as the leader of Venezuela.
2. The possibility that Maduro might leave power.
3. Trump’s arrival to the presidency of the U.S.

However, León was clear in stating that it is “zero probable” that Maduro will negotiate his exit from power or that Trump will recognize Maduro as legitimate. The situation is complex, and there seems to be no room for an agreement in those terms.

What Motivates Maduro to Negotiate?

Although some suggest that Maduro might be willing to negotiate due to economic risks or internal fractures, León doesn’t believe there are enough reasons for Maduro to give up power.

He noted that Trump couldn’t win with a “negotiation of forces,” as Maduro is not willing to give up power easily, and Trump is not interested in a regime change unless it is politically beneficial for the U.S.

Grenell: Trump’s “Super Negotiator”

Regarding Grenell’s visit, León emphasized that although Marco Rubio has been firm against Maduro, Grenell is a born negotiator, willing to do whatever it takes to get what Trump wants, including agreements that in other contexts might seem unusual. “The life of a U.S. citizen is worth anything,” León pointed out, noting that Grenell is known for negotiating even with criminals if it helps achieve larger goals.

Is This Really a Negotiation?

León dismissed the idea of those who claim there was no negotiation between the U.S. and Venezuela. According to him, the negotiation is unusual, and it is not based on conventional exchanges but on a unilateral negotiation where Maduro expects something in return. Trump secured the return of six detained Americans, and Maduro agreed to the deportation of Venezuelan migrants, which could be considered an “exchange.”

The Influence of the Oil License on Trump’s Strategy

León also explained that Trump will not eliminate license 41, which allows oil companies to continue operating in Venezuela, as this would be a blow to U.S. influence over Maduro’s regime. According to León, there is a 60% chance that Trump will “play dumb” regarding the elimination of these licenses, meaning that pressure on Venezuela would remain limited.

The Abstention and the Regional Elections on April 27

Finally, León addressed the situation of the opposition in Venezuela, particularly regarding the call for abstention. He argued that María Corina Machado, leader of the opposition, must consult all sectors before making unilateral decisions. “The full integration of the opposition is vital” for the struggle for change in Venezuela to be effective, León added.